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IEC TR 63043
Edition 1.0 2020-11
TECHNICAL
REPORT
colour
inside
Renewable energy power forecasting technology
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IEC TR 63043
Edition 1.0 2020-11
TECHNICAL
REPORT
colour
inside
Renewable energy power forecasting technology
INTERNATIONAL
ELECTROTECHNICAL
COMMISSION
ICS 29.020 ISBN 978-2-8322-9079-8
– 2 – IEC TR 63043:2020 IEC 2020
CONTENTS
FOREWORD . 7
INTRODUCTION . 9
1 Scope . 10
2 Normative references . 10
3 Terms, definitions and abbreviated terms . 10
3.1 Terms and definitions . 11
3.2 Abbreviated terms . 13
4 General introduction to renewable energy power forecasting . 15
4.1 History of RPF . 15
4.1.1 General . 15
4.1.2 Development of wind power forecasting . 16
4.1.3 Development of PV power forecasting . 17
4.2 Use of RPF . 17
4.2.1 General . 17
4.2.2 RPF for system operations . 18
4.2.3 RPF for power trading . 18
4.2.4 RPF for operations and maintenance . 19
4.3 Methods for forecasting renewable power . 19
4.3.1 General . 19
4.3.2 Classification of forecasting methods . 19
4.3.3 Classification based on time scale . 21
4.3.4 Classification based on spatial range . 22
4.3.5 Classification based on the forecasting model . 22
4.3.6 Classification based on the forecasting form . 24
4.4 Summary . 25
5 NWP technology . 25
5.1 General . 25
5.2 Concept and characteristics of NWP . 25
5.3 Influence on RPF accuracy . 27
5.3.1 Sensitivity analysis . 27
5.3.2 Error source analysis . 28
5.4 Technology progress for improving NWP . 29
5.4.1 General . 29
5.4.2 Global model . 29
5.4.3 Regional model . 31
5.5 Key techniques for improving the forecast accuracy of regional models . 31
5.5.1 Improve the accuracy of the initial conditions . 31
5.5.2 Ensemble prediction systems. 32
5.5.3 Establish regional customized forecasting model . 38
5.5.4 NWP post-processing . 39
5.6 Summary . 39
6 Statistical methods . 39
6.1 General . 39
6.2 Methods . 40
6.3 Applications . 42
6.3.1 General . 42
6.3.2 Time series models . 42
6.3.3 Model output statistics (MOS) . 47
6.3.4 Ensemble composite models (ECM) . 51
6.3.5 Power output models . 53
7 Wind power forecasting (WPF) technology. 54
7.1 General . 54
7.2 Short-term WPF . 54
7.2.1 Relationship between wind power output and meteorological elements . 54
7.2.2 Framework of short-term WPF . 57
7.2.3 Short-term WPF methods . 58
7.3 Ultra-short-term WPF . 62
7.4 Probabilistic WPF . 65
7.4.1 General . 65
7.4.2 Basic concepts and model framework definition . 65
7.4.3 Uncertainty modeling approaches . 66
7.4.4 Probabilistic WPF model . 67
7.5 Wind power ramp event forecasting . 71
7.5.1 General . 71
7.5.2 Quantitative description of wind power ramp events . 71
7.5.3 Forecasting methods of wind power ramp events . 74
7.6 WPF for wind farm clusters . 75
7.6.1 General . 75
7.6.2 Basic concepts of WPF for wind farm clusters. 75
7.6.3 Overall framework of the WPF for wind farm clusters . 76
7.6.4 Physical hierarchy of WPF for wind farm clusters . 78
7.6.5 WPF methods of wind farm clusters . 79
7.7 Other WPF techniques . 82
7.7.1 Medium-term and long-term WPF . 82
7.7.2 WPF for offshore wind farms . 82
7.8 Summary . 83
8 PV power forecasting technology . 83
8.1 General . 83
8.2 Short-term PVPF . 83
8.2.1 General . 83
8.2.2 Meteorological influence factors of PV power generation . 83
8.2.3 Basic concepts for short-term PVPF . 86
8.2.4 Short-term PVPF model . 87
8.2.5 Trends in PVPF development and key technical issues . 89
8.3 Ultra-short-term PVPF. 89
8.3.1 General . 89
8.3.2 Basic concepts for ultra-short-term PVPF . 90
8.3.3 Ultra-short-term PVPF models . 90
8.3.4 Trends in development and key technical issues . 92
8.4 Minute-time-scale PVPF. 92
8.4.1 Basic concepts for minute-time-scale solar power forecasting . 93
8.4.2 Technique routine of minute-time-scale solar power forecasting . 93
8.4.3 Trends in development and key technical issues . 94
8.5 Probabilistic PVPF . 95
8.5.1 Basic concepts of PV power probabilistic forecasting . 95
– 4 – IEC TR 63043:2020 IEC 2020
8.5.2 Probabilistic PVPF model . 96
8.5.3 Trends in development and key technical issues . 98
8.6 Distributed PVPF . 98
8.6.1 General . 98
8.6.2 Basic concepts for distributed PVPF .
...