Will lithium batteries be replaced?
This is a question of sustainable development of power battery technology. First, lithium-ion batteries last a long time. The upper limit of the specific energy of the current generation of lithium-ion batteries is about 300 watt-hours per kilogram, and new lithium-ion batteries can reach 350-400 watt-hours per kilogram. By 2025, there will be a first-generation all-solid-state battery with specific energy roughly equivalent to existing liquid-electrolyte ionic batteries. After 2030, the second generation of all-solid-state batteries using new positive and negative electrode materials will appear. The specific energy will increase to 500 watt hours per kilogram. There will also be high specific energy-sulfur and metal-air batteries. batteries.
Sodium-ion batteries arenow appeared, but their performance in all aspects cannot meet the requirements of high-performance automobiles. It is expected that by 2035, the performance of sodium-ion and potassium-ion batteries will be significantly improved, and the specific energy will reach about 300 watt-hours per kilogram. It is comparable to current high specific energy lithium-ion batteries.
From the perspective of sustainable development of the battery industry, it is estimated that existing lithium-ion batteries, including solid-liquid hybrid lithium-ion batteries, will still dominate before 2030. industrialization of the first generation of all-solid-state batteries could represent nearly 1% of the market around 2030. After 2035, a new generation of solid-state batteries, including potassium, magnesium, sodium, lithium-sulfur and other types, will enter the market. By 2050, the share of batteriesliquid lithium-ion should be reduced to around 20%.
Will solid-state batteries replace the lithium batteries currently used?
The possibility of supercapacitors replacing lithium batteries within 10 years is very low.
Recently, market research firm IDTechEx made a bold statement, predicting that supercapacitors could destroy the lithium-ion battery market. IDTechEx believes that supercapacitors are advancing much faster than lithium-ion batteries. IDTechEx claims that by 2024, the global supercapacitor market value will reach 6.5 billion and the market share will become larger and larger at the same time, thereby engulfing the battery market.
Why we say this: Supercapacitors don't need to fully achieve the energy density of lithium-ion batteries to eat the battery market. Maybeone percent of the battery market has been replaced because the energy density of this percent lasts longer, is safe, and has 10 times the power density. Supercapacitors have replaced lithium-ion batteries on some buses in China, but sales of supercapacitors are 3% lower than lithium-ion batteries due to high initial prices. "
Supercapacitors are a kind of power source with special properties between traditional capacitors and batteries. Supercapacitors have the advantages of fast charging and discharging speed and long battery life. cycle. Also for environmental reasons, public transport vehicles and trams without braiding Supercapacitors equipped with supercapacitors are expected to be widely promoted in many cities. Many people believe that with the advancement of technology, supercapacitors will be able to.replace the batteries.
Capacitor experts said: There are misunderstandings about the capabilities of supercapacitors. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, supercapacitors can generally be used in automobiles. When starting and accelerating the vehicle, the peak power is compensated. But the key to determining the range of electric vehicles lies in lithium batteries. Under current circumstances, supercapacitors and lithium batteries have a complementary relationship and neither can replace the other. For a long time to come, the energy density of supercapacitors will not be comparable to that of lithium batteries.
A research report also estimates that the industrialization level of fuel cells and supercapacitors is not high, and traditional dry batteries, lead-acid batteries and batterys nickel-chromium-nickel-hydrogen present problems such as heavy environmental problems. pollution and short lifespan. Therefore, for a long time to come, lithium batteries with relatively balanced performance in all aspects will remain the best choice in the future battery field.
The rapid development of electric vehicles on a global scale will further explode the demand for lithium batteries. Taking Tesla MODEL
S as an example, the sales volume in 2013 was 22,400 units. Based on each vehicle's average power of 70 kWh, its total power in 2013 reached 1.5 million kWh, and the world's power. The total annual demand for smartphone lithium batteries is 9.09 million kWh, and the power of a single Tesla model alone accounts for 16% of smartphone batteries.
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The stable and reliable performance of the batteries hasu lithium have led to their increasing use in battery-powered and plug-in hybrid vehicles, according to a report released last month by the research. farm. Global demand for lithium batteries will increase over the next decade, with the market value increasing each year to reach $26 billion by 2023. IDTechEx claims that by 2024, the global supercapacitor market value will reach 6. 5 billion.
However, the future development trend of lithium batteries is generally upward. There is also currently structural overcapacity. In particular, domestic low-end lithium batteries are competing fiercely. On the other hand, high-quality lithium batteries with high technological content are rare. This polarization means that lithium batteries, which seem technologically mature, still have room for technological progress.than considerable.
Therefore, the possibility of supercapacitors replacing lithium batteries within 10 years is very low.
Current pure electric vehicles are mainly equipped with ternary batteries, and some models use lithium iron phosphate batteries. These two batteries are liquid lithium batteries. As a liquid battery, it is more obviously affected by temperature. Especially under low temperature conditions, internal chemical reactions will be inhibited, which will affect energy storage, thereby affecting battery life. To alleviate this situation, many companies have started deploying solid-state batteries. So will solid-state batteries replace lithium batteries?
In fact, the so-called solid-state battery is a battery using a solid electrolyte. This type of battery has a temperature rangeWider operating range than liquid batteries, so it is more stable. In addition, precisely through the use of solid electrolytes, the lithium dendrite phenomenon that occurs when using liquid lithium batteries is effectively avoided, and the possibility of thermal runaway is also greatly alleviated. Additionally, solid-state batteries have a higher energy density and can provide longer runtime.
But even so, solid-state batteries have replaced liquid lithium batteries still have a long way to go. Although solid-state batteries have obvious advantages, disadvantages remain. Compared to liquid batteries, solid-state batteries have higher production costs. The cost of liquid lithium batteries is around 200-300 US dollars/kWh. If you use existing technology to make une solid-state battery sufficient to power a smartphone, the cost will reach 15,000 US dollars, the cost of a solid-state battery. enough battery to power a car is even higher, which only directly hurts its popularity.
In addition, solid-state batteries use solid electrolyte, and the interface with the electrode material is in a solid-solid state, so the interface resistance is too large, which drives the solid-state battery. take longer to load. As we all know, long charging times are one of the reasons for range anxiety. If this problem cannot be solved effectively, the possibility of solid-state batteries replacing lithium batteries is also low.
So, although the advantages of solid-state batteries are obvious, they will not replace liquid lithium batteries.in the short term due to higher production costs and increased interface impedance.
This article is from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.