There are two core factors that affect Three Gorges’ performance: on-grid electricity price and power generation volume.
In terms of on-grid electricity prices, the national policy is to gradually promote grid parity and reduce subsidies. This is a trend; it can also be seen from the prospectus of Three Gorges that in the past few years, onshore wind power, offshore wind power and photovoltaics have Prices vary in different resource areas, but the trend is constantly declining!
In high-quality first-class resource areas, the grid-connected price of wind power is even lower than that of thermal power! In other words, with technological advancement, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, wind power and photovoltaics will still be profitable without subsidies in the future and achieving grid parity.
Moreover, this kind of thing will not happen overnight. The price of Internet access continues to decrease, but the annual rate is smaller; the past two years have been the peak of wind power and photovoltaic installation, because as of the end of this year, the projects completed Still enjoying subsidies.
In terms of power generation, in the first half of this year, Three Gorges Energy's power generation increased by 44% year-on-year. This is due to the commissioning of its continuously expanding new projects. According to Three Gorges Energy's five-year plan, the installed capacity will reach 70-80GW by 2025, and the installed capacity in 2020 will be approximately 16GW. That is to say, by 2025, the total scale will be 4-5 times that of the current one, and the average annual installed capacity will be The capacity is about 15GW, which is almost another Three Gorges every year!
However, despite the promising future prospects of Three Gorges Energy, we should still avoid stocks with downward trends after their stock prices are speculated. It will be much safer to wait until the stock price falls out of the gold pit and the trend reverses before buying. There must be a margin of safety. There are some good companies in the market. It is better to miss out than to chase high prices.
1. Three Gorges Energy, how to analyze the trend?
Three Gorges Energy, in addition to its doubling of prices when it first went public, remained unmoved when the power sector was in full swing in August and September. This made betting on this new energy power stock The investors in this body are very distressed, and they don’t understand why the stock price doesn’t rise even though the company is excellent and the concept is very popular. Nowadays, the popularity of the power sector has greatly decreased, and many power stocks have given back more than half. Looking at Three Gorges Energy, it is still rising unhurriedly. The increase is not big, but at least it is still setting new highs, one step at a time. This is for position holders It's a bit of a consolation.
Because there is no large-scale bottom form below, I am not sure how much potential it has. I can only judge that it is currently in an upward trend based on the market's continuous breakthrough of callback highs. Especially this Monday, the stock price broke through the transaction-intensive area from September 22 to October 11 with a big positive line. It is more certain to judge that the market outlook will continue to rise. After all, the transaction volume in this area is quite large, proving that there has been a trend in this area. There are a large number of hold-up orders. Since the stock price can reach a new high, it is natural to release these hold-up orders and continue to rise. The negative line in the past two days is nothing to be afraid of. Before it falls below the low of Monday's positive line, these adjustments should be understood as a washout. After all, the breakthrough of the big positive line has attracted a large number of follow-up orders. It is normal to wash out and then rise again.