In terms of current affairs, the Henan Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Notice on the Publication of the Wind Power Project Development Plan in 2021". The document proposes to accelerate the approval of projects included in the development plan. to the energy consumption space of various regions and the province, this wind project development plan for 2021 was released for the first time, totaling 4.04 million kilowatts. The notice requests the development and reform commissions of all provincial municipalities and directly governed counties (cities) to arrange the approval of wind power project development accordingly, and urges companies to accelerate preliminary work and construction of the wind power project.
Right now, the logic behind the boom in the wind energy sector lies in demand. According to national statistics from thepower industry from January to August released by the National Energy Administration, from January to August 2021, China's newly installed wind power capacity was 14.63 GW, a year-on-year increase of 4 .59 GW in August. the new scale of grid-connected wind power was 2.06 GW, a year-on-year increase of 39%. On the one hand, three factors: the construction of clean energy bases and offshore wind power bases + rural wind power + the "14th Five-Year Plan" have boosted expectations for installed capacity of wind energy in the post-subsidy era. On the other hand, taking into account the promotion of carbon neutrality, it is more likely that the installed capacity in a single year will remain above 50 GW during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.
Based on the comparison of valuations of various new energy sectors in equipmentelectric, the valuations of wind machinery and component manufacturers are relatively low with the valuations of photovoltaics, energy storage, lithium batteries, etc. . Standing at medium to high levels, demand-side policies Catalyzed by the wind power industry, the overall valuation of wind power is recovering and the valuation gap with photovoltaics is expected to narrow. From the perspective of performance, due to order delivery cycle factors, the performance of complete machine manufacturers this year more reflects last year's high-priced orders, and the gross profit margin is relatively good. The performance of parts manufacturers reflects the impact of current purchase orders. Affected by the pressure on upstream steel prices, the current performance is under pressure.
Everbright Securities believes that the largestStock price elasticity in the wind power industry is expected to come from cost reduction, and that judgment of the trend of economic data and steel prices is the core. On September 15, the National Energy Administration announced that the overall growth rate of electricity consumption in August was 3.6%, and the electricity consumption of the secondary sector was 0.6%. . Previously, the IPP was also at a high level.After the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", although the supply has some support due to the policy of restricting the production of the Winter Olympics, steel prices could continue to rise or pressures could arise. If steel prices fall, profits for wind power component manufacturers will reverse and be realized in 2022, with greater flexibility. Whole machine manufacturers have orders relativelyfull in 2021, but gross profit margins may be slightly impacted by this year's low-cost orders. Leading manufacturers with rapid growth or high gross profit margins should be preferred.
Regarding specific investment objectives, Everbright Securities recommends seizing investment opportunities in wind power parts and complete machines. Wind power parts industry recommends to focus on: Daikin Heavy Industry, Jinlei Co., Ltd., Taisheng Wind. Energy, Zhenjiang Co., Ltd., Japan Yue Shares and Tianshun Wind Energy. It is recommended to focus on the wind machinery sector: Sany Heavy Energy (to be listed), Yunda Co., Ltd., Goldwind Technology (A+H) and Mingyang Intelligent.
2009:
Thermal energy accounts for approximately 80%, hydroelectricity approximately 16% and the rest is wind energy, nakedcleaire, etc.
We are currently vigorously developing clean energy. Therefore, the proportion of thermal power will decrease, and the trend is to increase the proportion of clean energy such as hydropower.(Internet search on China's electricity supply structure)
In 2010, annual electricity consumption was 4 trillion kWh. (Internet search: China's annual electricity consumption)
It is not possible to stop coal-fired power (thermal power):
1. Developing other clean energies requires a process. The construction cycle of a hydroelectric power station lasts from 5 to 20 years. Although many power plants can be built at the same time, it also takes time. Site selection requirements for nuclear power are relatively strict, safety must be considered and the ddevelopment will not be too rapid. Wind energy reserves are limited.
2. Thermal power has advantages that other electric power does not: stability and few restrictions on plant site conditions. Most hydropower is seasonal, and electricity production varies significantly between wet and dry periods. Wind power is also limited by the uncertainty of wind power.
3. Linked to the local economy. This involves the sale of coal companies as well as the operation and development of power companies. By shutting down coal-fired power, coal mines lost huge, high-quality, stable customers. Electric power giants that focus primarily on thermal power cannot move into developing other energy sources if they don't have food to eat, they certainly won't.definitely not.
4. Disadvantages of nuclear energy. The cost of power plants is higher than that of thermal energy. There are no international conclusions on the safety of nuclear energy. As a large amount of cooling water is required, it can only be built in areas where water is abundant and seismic intensity is low. The biggest problem is that the treatment of nuclear waste currently involves landfilling or returning it for disposal. Landfilling is the stupidest method and environmental pollution is inevitable; Recycling requires specialized technology, equipment and processing plants. Current processing capacity is too low and new construction and expansion will take time. (Internet search: Disadvantages of nuclear energy, nuclear waste disposal)