The possibility of supercapacitors replacing lithium batteries within 10 years is very low.
Recently, market research firm IDTechEx recently made a bold claim, predicting that supercapacitors could destroy the lithium-ion battery market. IDTechEx believes that supercapacitors are advancing much faster than lithium-ion batteries. IDTechEx claims that by 2024, the global supercapacitor market value will reach 6.5 billion and the market share will become larger and larger at the same time, thereby engulfing the battery market.
Why we say this: Supercapacitors don't need to fully achieve the energy density of lithium-ion batteries to eat the battery market. Perhaps one percent of the battery market has been replaced because the energy density of that percent lasts longer, is safe, and has a10 times higher power density. Supercapacitors have replaced lithium-ion batteries on some buses in China, but sales of supercapacitors are 3% lower than lithium-ion batteries due to high initial prices. "
Supercapacitors are a kind of power supply with special properties between traditional capacitors and batteries. Supercapacitors have the advantages of fast charging and discharging speed fast and long cycle times . Also for the environment For this reason, braidless public transport and trams equipped with supercapacitors should be widely promoted in many cities. , supercapacitors will be able to replace batteries < /p>
Supercapacitor experts said: The outside world has misunderstandings about the capabilities of supercapacitors.Taking new energy vehicles as an example, supercapacitors can generally compensate for peak power during the starting and acceleration phases of the vehicle, but they determine the cruising range of electric vehicles. Under current circumstances, supercapacitors and lithium batteries are complementary, and no one can replace the other. And for a long time, the energy density of supercapacitors will not be comparable to that of lithium batteries. A research report also estimates that the industrialization level of fuel cells and supercapacitors is not high, and traditional dry batteries, lead-acid batteries and nickel-chromium-nickel-hydrogen batteries have problems such as 'high environmental pollution and short lifespan. for a long time in the future, lithium batteries with relatively high performancebalanced in all aspects will remain the best choice in the future battery field.
The rapid development of global electric vehicles will further explode demand. for lithium batteries. Taking Tesla MODEL
S as an example, the sales volume in 2013 was 22,400 units. Based on each vehicle's average power consumption of 70 kWh, its total power consumption in 2013 reached 1.5 million. kWh. The total annual demand for lithium batteries for smartphones worldwide is 9.09 million kWh, and Tesla's power alone accounts for 16% of smartphone batteries.
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The research firm. reported last month that global demand for lithium-ion batteries will increase every year over the next decade due to their stable and reliable performance. The market value will increase to $26 billion by 2023. IDTechEx claims that by 2024, the global supercapacitor market value will reach 6.5 billion.
However, the future development trend of lithium batteries is generally upward. There is also currently structural overcapacity. In particular, domestic low-end lithium batteries are competing fiercely. On the other hand, high-quality lithium batteries with high technological content are rare. This polarization means that lithium batteries, which appear technologically mature, still have considerable room for technological progress.
Therefore, the possibility of supercapacitors replacing lithium batteries within 10 years is very low.